MAPS

Is this further proof that even “independent” polls can be biased?

http://www.pollster.com/

Look at the states of Nevada and Ohio on this pollster map.

In Nevada, they list McCain leading by 3.6 percent (44.9-41.3) and it’s labelled as a toss-up state. I’d say that’s fair, but Ohio, where Obama is leading by 3.6 percent (46.1-42.5), is listed as “leaning Obama”.

Is this just another sign that biases are always going to be there and you should never trust the presentation of any poll data? Or am I missing something?

It depends on the confidence level and confidence interval of the individual poll.

If the Nevada poll shows a 3.6% McCain lead with a +/- 5% confidence interval, then it truly is a toss up. If the Ohio poll shows Obama leading by 3.6%, but with a +/- 3% confidence interval, then it is fair to put Ohio in “leaning Obama.” The former poll result would indicate that there is a less than 95% chance (confidence level) that McCain is in the lead, while the latter would indicate that there is a greater than 95% chance that Obama is in the lead.

Until we know the confidence intervals on the respective polls, we can’t know whether there was “bias” involved as opposed to an honest interpretation of poll data resulting from different confidence intervals.

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